Outlook calm markets after the important decisions in the past week

Ben Bernanke was the first man par excellence in the last week when he made the remarks during the day Wednesday and Thursday before Congress and the Senate in the United States

Fundamental analysis

Ben Bernanke was the first man par excellence in the last week when he made the remarks during the day Wednesday and Thursday before Congress and the Senate in the United States

All the lights are on the statements made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, which was filled with caution, it is known that Ben Bernanke's remarks are based on two main points of the first tightening of monetary policy and the second asset purchases. Ben Bernanke said the day before Congress Wednesday that the decision to postpone the process of reducing its asset purchase program (QE) until half of next year not Balhtmi that reduction depends entirely on the upcoming economic data. Then returned and peered Fed Chairman on Thursday before the Senate to come back and confirms what he said in the previous day that reducing the quantitative easing program is not Palmakd

In relation to pound sterling there was a first meeting of the Bank of England for the month of July after receiving Mark Carney helm, monitoring traders closely to his statements about expanding or reducing quantitative easing, but the result was a stop quantitative easing exactly which stop buying assets of $ 375 billion per year, which means that the British central bank will stop pumping money into the market, which may lead to reduced liquidity and supply at the same time and thus to higher Pound Alstrlena. He also confirmed that the rate of interest will not be less than 0.5 percent

Japanese Yen was also in the spotlight after the results of the Japanese Senate elections that took place over the weekend which resulted in the superiority of the Japanese yen against its major counterparts

This week sees quieter in the decisions and statistics, as waiting for the day Wednesday, the interest rate decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is expected to remain 2.5% to support growth, the New Zealand central bank's policy has not changed

Also waiting for the day Thursday gross domestic product (GDP) is British output is expected to be 1.4% versus 0.3% in the previous This significant increase can be reflected positively on the pound sterling, which may lead to the rise, all of this accompanied by the British central bank's decision to reconcile quantitative easing program

Witnessing the same day the U.S. durable goods orders are goods that are expected to live for more than three years, these products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer, especially for high expenditures,

It is expected to be a census 1.1% versus 3.6% in the previous

Commodities: It is likely to submit contracts for crude oil and gold in the event of U.S. data came disappointing

Likely to submit contracts for crude oil and gold in the event undermined the weak U.S. economic data reduced bets the Fed's stimulus efforts.
Highlighted key points:

    Technical portend sites for crude oil contracts of the consequences of the emergence of a reflection on the horizon
    Likely to receive support in the case of goods undermined the weak U.S. data reduced bets the Fed quantitative easing
Free table-poor U.S. economic data to traders awaited the release of house price index for the month of May and the manufacturing index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in the state, with the expectation that the emergence of a slight improvement on both levels. However, as we pointed out earlier, the U.S. economic results returned to test some weakness compared with economists' expectations. Keep that area available in front of the emergence of disappointing results undermine speculation the Fed reduced the size of asset purchases. It is possible to enhance this scenario risk appetite and provides support for crude oil, copper and fueling demands for gold and silver contracts. Needless to say, he would have the results strong adverse effects.
Technical analysis for crude oil - Hot prices just as had been expected after testing constitute the evening star pattern in the candlestick. Main support lines up at 105.06, which aims to break down the existing level of 38.2% at 102.70. Near-term resistance at 108.89, the peak of the nineteenth of July

Technical Analysis for gold

Gold entered into the upward channel since almost a month, up to 1347 U.S. dollars, the highest level within the channel, and fall back to below 1314 $ to the nearest support line

RSI gives a sell signal, after breaking the upward trend line indicator line level session as shown, and in addition to that there Trend landing began forming since the beginning of the week. Is also an indicator, bearish divergence between him and the price of gold, which gives additional sell signal for gold

It possible to see gold drop to the level of $ 1,300, this price level is a line of technical support, moral and traders, which is meant that the refractive price of this line will be a strong signal to them, and, if broken, will be the first target price is the minimum font of the channel any 1284 $. And otherwise the price can rebound towards the main resistance line any 1347 USD

Support lines ($): 1300, 1267.1240

Resistance lines ($): 1347, 1358

The opening of European markets: the potential to advance the pound sterling and the euro after UK GDP and German IFO data

Likely to hit the pound sterling and the euro bounced back after the losses Minya yesterday, as strengthen the supporting data for GDP British and German IFO expectations the European Central Bank's policy and the Bank of England.
Highlights

    Is likely to rise the euro and the pound sterling amid strengthening economic data outlook for monetary policy
    Of the dollar is likely to decline after fading reduced bets the Fed quantitative easing if U.S. data came disappointing
Chapter II figures headline GDP British economic calendar in European trading hours. Projections indicate output to rise by 0.6%, the best performance since the three months to September 2012. Likely to coincide recovery with significant improvement that occurs on the economic data in the United Kingdom during the period between April and June, which would provide support for the pound center as traders return to growth to normal levels as a guide limits the opportunities for expanding the Bank of England the Department of incentives .
In the meantime, it is likely to show the German IFO business confidence provided the main measure of the business climate to 106.1, the highest reading in four months. In this regard, according to data released by Citigroup, excels numbers issued by the monetary mass Square speculation in recent times, which probably provides some support to the expectations of the European Central Bank's policy. In the meantime, the euro continues to track the underlying difference between the proceeds, which indicates that any bullish surprise will be channeled for the benefit of the single currency and the prospects for rates.
Later in the day, turn attention towards the U.S. economic calendar. Report will be durable goods orders for the month of June and weekly jobless claims, amid estimates the emergence of a slight deterioration on both levels. In general, the results returned to the U.S. economic tested some weakness compared to the expectations of economists in recent weeks. Keep that area available in front of the emergence of disappointing results put the U.S. dollar under downward pressure and dissipate intensive hopes to reduce the size of the Fed quantitative easing.

U.S. Housing Starts

Current Reading: 0.914 M (Starts), 0.974 M (Permits)

Next Release: Wednesday, July 17, 12:30 GMT (Released monthly, about 17 days after the review month ends)

Economists Expect: 0.970 M (Starts), 0.990 M (Permits)

Source of report: The Census Bureau at the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Upcoming Release Commentary:

Housing starts rebounded in May by 6.8 percent after plunging 14.8 percent the month before. The May housing starts annualized level of 0.914 million units was a 28.6 percent rise on a year-ago basis. The jump in starts was led by a monthly 21.6 percent gain in the multi-family component. Single-family component increased 0.3 percent in May, following a 4.2 percent decline in April. Building Permits dipped 3.1 percent in May after jumping 12.9 percent in April. May’s annualized pace of 0.974 million units was a 20.8 percent gain on a year-ago basis.

Analysts expect housing starts to rise 6.4 percent in June to a 0.970 million pace. US Building permits are likely to rise to 1 million last month. Recent data suggests that home-builders are more confident about exercising their inventory of building permits, and have increased their construction activity to cater to current and expected future demand.

US Housing Starts Historical Chart:

Historically, from 1959 until 2013, the U.S. Housing Index averaged 1463.19 thousand, reaching a record high of 2494.00 thousand in January 1972, and a low of 478.00 thousand April 2009.

- See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2013/07/16/u-s-housing-starts/#sthash.9vpQ6rrK.dpuf

The yen may rally to its strongest level in almost five

The yen may rally to its strongest level in almost five months versus the dollar after breaking a key level of resistance, according to Bank of America Corp.

The Japanese currency will face a test in the 98.30-to-98.76 area after breaching initial resistance at 99.58 today, according to MacNeil Curry, chief rates and currencies technical strategist in New York at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If the yen increases past that resistance level, it may target 90.91, Curry said. That would be its strongest level since February.

“As dollar-yen traded up towards 103, we started to see signs of topping out, with an advance in stocks starting to look a bit exhausted,” Curry said in a telephone interview. “The upside for dollar-yen is limited. We could see a run down to the 93, potentially the 91 area.”

The yen increased 1.1 percent to 99.55 per dollar in New York, after rising as much as 1.4 percent, the most since July 11.

Japan’s currency has declined 10.2 percent this year, the most among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar and the euro each advanced 4.6 percent.

“We’re still bullish dollar,” Curry said. “But we’re in a medium-term range-bound trading environment before the larger yen-bear trend resumes.”

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Resistance refers to an area on a chart where sell orders may be clustered, and support is an area where there may be buy orders.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net

The dollar weakened against most major currencies

By simongray on Jul 19, 2013 06:58:22 GMT

The dollar weakened against most major currencies in a quiet days trading on Friday as traders reacted to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments that the Fed has no imminent plans to scale back the level of its bond buying program.

The Fed’s monthly $85 billion bond-buying program is seen to weaken the dollar, so any news regarding the possible scaling back of bond purchases has the opposite effect.

Whilst the dollar has strengthened in the last couple of sessions as traders bet that such monetary stimulus programs would be scaled back, possibly in a matter of weeks. The greenback weakened today after Bernanke’s told congress that the Fed will take its time unwinding such policies and may even delay the decision should economic data disappoint.

In U.S. trading on Friday, EUR/USD was up 0.17% at 1.3132, down from a high of 1.3152 and up from a low of 1.3088.

The pound was up on the back of better than expected lending data out of the U.K. GBP/USD was up 0.21% at 1.5256, down from a high of 1.5284 and up from a low of 1.5196.

Whilst the yen was up in late trading as investors adjusted positions before Japan’s upper house elections on Sunday, which could add momentum to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s aggressive push for monetary easing to lift growth and fight deflation.